Friday, December 30, 2016

CHINA SHOWING THE DUEL SIDE OF THEIR POLICY


China again took the hopeless decision to block once again the UN proposal to designate Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist. China for the third  time blocked the move to list Je-M chief Masood Azhar as a UN designated terrorist, clearly reflects  chinese double standards in  fighting terrorism and that too when China itself is a victim of terrorism.


This decision of china proved how big hypocrites they are in the fighting  terrorism.The international community is well aware that the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed , has been responsible for innumerable terrorist attacks on India including the Pathankot Air Base attack. The helplessness &  inability of the international community to list its leader Masood Azhar is an unfortunate blow to the concerted efforts to effectively counter all forms of terrorism, and confirms prevalence of double standards in the fight against terrorism  internationally.


If We keep on using Terrorism as tool against other country ,The menaces of terrorism shall never end from this world and it will come before us as Taliban ,ISIS, Jaish e.t.c  TERRORISTS are TERRORISTS  . May be in different form in different country at different time.It is now established that one country is using terrorism against other as part of their strategy .A shameful act.


So this act of Chinese of blocking UN proposal to ban a top leader of a Pakistani Terrorists organisation is highly deplorable & regretful .But China still  is hopeful and forecasting better  Indo - China relationship at the beginning of new year 2017.  How could they make such optimistic forecast after being so irresponsible.Probably it is  Chinese characteristic's.


 China actually do not believe in calendar dates to appreciate or depreciate the level of friendship. Only one criteria that needed  to be be fulfilled is , it should serve Chinese interest  . Summing up , Beijing's perception of the outgoing year and its vision of Sino-Indian ties for the next year i.e. 2017 is, as Chinese said that the two nations signed off their most engaging year bogged down only by the old issues .


China is a typical country which is habitual of not following any international norms , regulations , But very sweetly & swiftly issuing threats to any body & every body they choose . Chinese expansionist move is becoming a real Danger for whole world, day by day .They are ready  to break any international Law/rules at their will , if it suits them . Are real jealous and hypocrites. Follow one set of rules for themselves and another for rest of the world.Their only strategy is ,how to expand their area of influence .


Forcefully occupation of vast Indian Area , unlawful claims over Indian areas .But they are 180 ° different when it comes on their own .Chinese president recently said , we shall not compromise an inch of our sovereign land , no matter at what  costs. Contrary to this they are occupying vast land of India in Aksai chin ,Ladakh  , Captured Tibet ,now on move to capture south china sea. They are very sensitive to these issues and wants nobody to needle , but it seems , they have the copy right to meddle ,needle in others business. A hopelessly sick attitude of China .


China’s constant opposition to India’s membership of the NSG, opposition to UN sanctions on Jaish-e-Mohammed Chief, Masood  Azahar , and construction of  China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in Pak Occupied Kashmir are highly deplorable. They even afraid  to discus other related issues where they are proven wrong i.e South China Sea , Taiwan ,Tibet, Uyghar Separatist, CPEC e.t.c .  India seeks  better understanding & asked China , to at least respect each other's sensitive issues for building mutual trust.


What , one should do and what shouldn't-- that too china wants to dictate . India's  recent moves to strengthen ties with Mongolia  irritates china .China feel threatened . Why ? Is this not ridiculous. It's really very unfortunate that in this part of world the saying "might is right" is fully applicable , where all international rule/law fails in the south china sea .


China should be taught in language that they understand ."Hit it hard , Where it pains more" -This is true for China- A typical Trump way of dealing China . The Chinese political character & behavior is very odd & complicated.Slowly & slowly Chinese expansionist moves ares becoming a real Danger for whole world .


Chinese open support to rough states like North Korea  and Pakistan  is direct  threat to Democratic countries like India ,Japan, South Korea and other south Asian countries like. Vietnam ,Laos ,Cambodia ,Thailand ,Myanmar ,Malaysia , Indonesia , Philippines . Pakistan poses terrorisits threat to neighboring countries and it has Chinese nodding . They train & harbor terrorists in their land so as to export them later to whole Asia and  to whole world so as to  destabilize other countries for their gains


In spite of this , Chinese are so professional in double acts that they even admit & say - It's natural to have differences with India ,but  hopeful of better ties in 2017  .This typical selfish  gestures of china and are to confuse the whole international community ,specially USA .They keep on changing their statements and stands as if standing on a slippery surface , where coordinates keep changing.


To make China understand is not very difficult .One will have to follow Tit For Tat formula .Pay them in the same coin .If you  call and recognize their Uyghar separatist  leaders as , hero , they will soon realize the meaning of Terrorists .But for international community and international press they always intend to prove how innocent , ideal , cooperative they are , towards their neighbors but actually they are the real threat behind every international scene.


They preach nicely and say ,as close neighbors, it is natural that two big countries to have differences, but we keep exploring  ways to resolve them through diplomatic channels. The suggest main theme of China-India relations remains friendship and cooperation . But this is not to be believed. This is their double standard.They say something  , do something & show something  . Though they have again blocked UN move to ban international Terrorist Azhar Mehmood and India's entry to NSG but still hopeful  of better relation in 2017. Why not ! After all this is height of world class hypocrisy which widely prevails now in international politics

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

CHINA'S MUSCLE FLEXING IN SOUTH CHINA SEA



China has started  well intended ,well planned military muscle flexing acts in South China sea like placement of military personnel's , missiles launchers & aggressive patrolling .China is hell bent to prove to the US that it is just their normal activities & want good bilateral relations with all its neighbours.


 In this process , in a very calculative and well thought manner it has started  showcasing the most modern weaponry of its air and naval  forces. China's only  (second hand) aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, already conducted its first military drill in South China Sea. It  recently tested a new prototype stealth fighter, an improved version of the earlier one.


When the whole issue of  south china sea was on volcano after the decision of international tribunal , sending  an  aircraft carrier by china in the Pacific along with newly upgraded combat aircraft speaks for itself.   China's military is in hurry for showing off its new acquire military equipments visa vis power . It seems China's hurry for such show offs are for better bargaining only.


These are the one of few steps in the recent years- of long build-up by China's military, as Beijing seeks greater global power status to match its economic might and asserts itself more aggressively in its own backyard  i.e. Pacific area.


Irrespective of what world thinks ,China's stand on Taiwan is still same that ,it's a  part of its territory awaiting unification, , even though the two sides split in 1949 .


Taiwan is badly alarmed by various provocative instances and show of strength by china and put it's force on alerts .Taiwan said , that , time to time provocative measures taken by China increases  tension in the whole south china sea and  which is increasing day by day . Show of strength has always been an integral part of Chinese diplomacy and they are quite habitual of this , so  it is all intended one . Keeping this in view America recently announced sell of defence equipments worth 1.2 bn dollars.


China is well aware that America is far superior to china , whether it's  technology or equipment  and at no point of time it can claim military superiority over Taiwan's main protector Washington, which has 10 aircraft carriers in service and a network of naval bases all around the globe. So probably for China, its going to be bargaining tool and nothing else . The presence of the Liaoning is above all "symbolic" and this second hand Soviet built  Aircraft carrier is Lioning is of no strategic importance simply  a pressure tool.


Although the US spending on military is far more than China , but Beijing's growing assertiveness in strategic regions like the South China Sea is a cause of concern.But the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has set off waves among Washington's allies in Asia.



In recent years Beijing has strengthened its claims on the South China Sea one sidededly and fuelled regional tensions by expanding tiny reefs and islets into artificial islands providing with military facilities. But It is  Opposed by all littoral states -Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan , who  have not accepted Beijing's claims ,while Washington has repeatedly called on China to uphold freedom of navigation, sending ships and aircraft to pass close to their nose.


China in order to manage &  dramatizing the whole situation in South china sea is doing everything. New in this chapter is fly of nuclear-capable bomber in South China Sea .By hooks or crooks China wants to pose and act as a big brother in this area .


The dramatic show of force was meant to send a message  that china is a force to be reckoned with .Even more concern for the Washington is , China has started to ship advance missiles i.e. surface-to-air missiles to disputed  islands in the South China Sea.


China's unlawful, forcible one sided deployment of advanced surface-to-air missile system in desputed island is a very aggressive posture. The disputed   island in the Paracel Island chain in the South China Sea, also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam. In last  October, a US Navy destroyer sailed close to Woody Island as freedom of navigation operation where as chinese called it as "provocative."  It was the fourth such operation by the U.S. Navy in the past year. Now this year too  in July 2017 US repeated it.


China has cooly constructed over 3,000 acres of land atop reefs in the South China Sea in the past few years. It now has three runways and has sent bombers and fighter jets to a number of them. World is like a silent spectators and this exactly what china wants .


China is a typical country which is habitual of not following any international norms , regulations , But very sweetly & swiftly issuing threats to any body & every body they choose . Chinese  move is becoming a real Danger for whole world, day by day .They are ready  to break any international Law/rules at their will , if it suits them . Chinese are real jealous and hypocrites. Follow one set of rules for themselves and another for rest of the world.Their only strategy is , to expand their area of influence .South China sea is one.


It's really very unfortunate that in this part of world , the saying "might is right" is fully applicable , where all international rule/law fails. UN should step in boldly in a deceive way , otherwise it will be too late .

DONALD TRUMP DIGS AGAIN AT CHINA - INDICATES LIKELY POLICIES


Hit hard where it pains more - True for China- A Trump way of doing with rivals .In general term it can be called as TIT FOR TAT policy. Probably China understand this language only.The Chinese political character & behavior is very complicated.


Sunday, December 25, 2016

TRUMP-PUTIN POWER BALANCE : WORLD HOPEFUL



To day's overall situation in the world is very alarming , probably in transition phase. A new world order is emerging and a new set of Equilibrium is required i.e.Balance Of Power.  Balance of power between two or more groups , is , practically a state of equilibrium  between the competing forces.


 In international relations, it refers to , holdings among countries or alliances to prevent any one group, from becoming too strong to force , enforce it's wishes upon the other group to take undue advantages , gains ,favours and dominate , at its will . This is however the most dangerous condition, which every body wants to avoid . Because , when other group start resisting it , war flares up , which may put whole world in danger .


The present crisis like Syria , Yeman ,Libya, South China Sea , Ukraine ,Crimea , Trade war e.tc are very disturbing which is neither good for world economy nor for the human being at large .As it happened in Syria ,millions of families were destroyed and displaced , millions of homeless people had to flee from there houses as refugee .People's were killed  irrespective of  whether they are child like Kurdi , wemen or old aged people . Hopelessly in the terrorists camp of  ISIS  women were sold like , as if not human .


These are blots on human face & on humanity . Situation is so tense that because of any misunderstandings war can escalate any time  . Recently there were exchange of threats between Israel and Pakistan , here both are nuclear ststes. In most part of the world tension exists in different forms like in Europe & Black Sea area .


 In Eastern Ukraine  , NATO and RUSSIA are fighting a proxy war which may flare up at any time .One country in order to contain others imposing Trade sanctions on others , which creates an uneasy Trade climate , whose chain reaction may cause further damages . Recent coup in Turkey is a current  example of this power game. Recent UN resolution on unauthorised settlements by Israel  in Palestinian area , may transform into a new battle area.To add further , Putin's frustrations over U.S. support to NATO and European Union expansion to East Europe , which threatened Russia..


In these disturbing scenario only human and humanity , nature are the sufferers and defeated .which gives rise to Global recessions like situation like in 2008 -10 .So we need to get off of these things and must learn to live and prosper together , without  eating others shares & area .


To have this we need a very good understanding between two super Power groups i.e. US & Russia.


Recently Russia said  they have modified their nuclear Arsenals & now new President elect Trump also said USA will pay full attention towards  modernization and improving  their nuclear Arsenals .Where it will leads to  and where we stand .Are we sitting on volcano .We should discuss and work out , where we wants to lead the world.


In changed scenario of 2017 , we need to have perfect understandings between two power groups i.e. Trump and Putin , to see a happy and prosper world  - having trade boom ,development , ecological balance, controlled carbon signatures,  improved enviroment and this can happen with mutual trusts of both the countries only.


It is expected that  global growth next year will accelerate up to 3% . But this will depend on positive impulse from healthy financial conditions in the Trump led US and other parts of the emerging world like India ,Indonesia ,China , Japan ,UK ,Russia e.t.c US economy-is expected to grow  by 3.5 % . Probably US economy will lead the world to prosperity .


US ,INDIA ,CHINA ,JAPAN ,GERMANY  economy are just like powerful Engines ,which will give momentum to world economy .RUSSIAN economy - too  is returning to growth trend  after the recession . The Russian President also stressed that Russia has no intention to isolate itself from rest of  the world and shall be part of the global economy.


The fall in oil prices and the subsequent ruble crisis pushed the economy of the world’s largest energy exporter into the longest recession in two decades. With 38 percent of the budget revenue coming from energy, the government has based the 2017-2019 budget plans on oil at $40 per barrel.Russia’s Urals export blend has traded above $50 since the OPEC agreement .If the oil prices remain at this level, country's budget will get an extra boost .


So the world is watching with curiosity ,how the Trump & Putin  relations shall work.More positive vibes between them , means better world order ,less war , better environment ,no recessions ,trade booms , arms control , no arm race - which leads to better happy healthy world.


Russia has started giving goodwill gestures to new US administration &   said , we face serious global and regional challenges, which  countries  will have to face in coming years, so the relations between two super powers i.e. Russia and the U.S. will remain as an important factor in ensuring world peace ,stability and security of the modern world .


Russia  hopes , that  new President of the United States of America ,  will choose a positive path by acting in a constructive way &  to take positive steps to restore bilateral cooperation in different areas . Also level of collaboration on the international scenes  shall also improve .Putin further  recently said to US in a message to Trump “Please accept my sincere wishes to you and your family of sound health, happiness,  well being, success and all the best.”


Trump too returned good will gestures to Russia. Trump indicated  his longstanding goal of warmer ties between the two Cold War countries. The most important thing for Trump is international equilibrium.


As we know  , view of new US government shall be very important in dealing with world affairs . The Signals emitting  & remark available so far from  Trump camp are very positive in nature,  as far as Russia is concerned .As per Trumps aides , the long-term interests of both countries calls for a world of new equilibrium which is increasingly  going towards multi-polar and globalized world .



Trump camp increasingly  believes Russia as an essential element of any new global equilibrium, not primarily as a threat to the United States. This is great .Further  Ukraine needs to be embedded in the structure of European and international security architecture in such a way that it serves as a bridge between Russia and the West, rather than as an outpost of either side. Similar feelings goes for Middle East and  elsewhere.


Overall , the Trump side feels , to have larger gains , we need to be prepared to accept the ground realities  in Syria, Crimea, and Eastern Ukraine, then only we can have a better relationship in the interest of whole world.


Regarding China, Trump intend to change the existing trend of Chinese dictatorial attitude i.e Taiwan ,Tibet ,South China Sea , Trade imbalance e.t.c. so Trump need to maintain a strong NATO, though he is not convinced about it's usefulness . But Trump's desire for warmer ties with Russia has been one of the more consistent stances he's taken, and he could find a nice alignment in the nice letter of Putin.


So olive green gestures are already there for the new US government , rest time will itself speak.

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

INDIAN ECONOMY'S BIG LEAP AS Vth LARGEST ECONOMY


After independence the Indian economy was growing at snail's speed without any decisive direction or target to achieve , it was routine import and export business which was totally shadowed by socialism, social cause ,protectionism , import substitution , socially  motivated policies of India after the end of British Raj . But Slowly this has become story of past. Those days economy was being  eaten away by extensive complicated bureaucratic regulations, protectionism, public ownership,  monopolies, high level of corruption , no transparency and slow growth and non international competition. 


But Since 1991 , the  economic liberalization , economic reforms , free market economy took the front seat which lead the country towards a market-based economy.Year 2001 to 2008 were crucial years of transformation .By 2008, India had established itself as one of the world's fastest growing economies.


Any Countries financial health/ economy  is judged by GDP .Gross Domestic Product is the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year. In Nominal method (GDP- nominal) no markets exchange rates are used for conversion. To make it more meaningful comparison, PPP i.e. purchasing power parity ,is used to compare economy and incomes of people by adjusting for differences in prices in different countries i.e. GDP(PPP)


After steady fast growth of 70 Years after Independence , India became a bigger Economy than  UK based on GDP , as per report published recently .


Few Details : India has became one of the fastest growing service sectors in the world with annual growth rate of above 9% since 2002, which contributed to more than 56% of GDP  in 12-13 . India became a major exporter of IT services, BPO services, and software services with $170 billion worth of service exports in 2013-14. It is also one of the fastest-growing part of the economy.


The IT industry continues to be the largest private sector employer in India. India is also the third largest start-up hub in the world with over 4,000 technology start-ups in 2014-15. The agricultural contribution is , as the largest employer in India's economy , which played major role but contributes to a declining share of its GDP as 18% in 2013-14. even though India stands second in farm output.


The Industry sector has continuously held a vital constant share of its economic contribution as 28% of GDP as in 2013-14 .The Indian auto mobile industry is also one of the largest in the world with an annual production of 21 million vehicles mostly two and three wheelers in FY 2013-14. India has $600 billion worth of retail market in 2015 and this is also one of world's fastest growing E-Commerce markets.


India's two major stock exchanges namely  Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India, had a market capitalization of US$1 + trillion and US$1.5 + trillion respectively at of end 2015, which ranks 11th & 12th largest , in the world respectively according to the World Federation of Exchanges.


Trade -Gap:  Exports$272.4 billion (2015 ) vs Imports$409.2 billion (2015) This gap is not the good   sign of economy and this gap need to be closed immediately.


The dramatic shift , which put India ahed of UK in terms of GDP  was due to India’s rapid economic growth over the last 25 years .It is matter of great pride & satisfaction that India overtook UK & becomes 5th largest GDP after USA, China, Japan & Germany. India to maintain the lead .But another reason  of India overtaking UK is due to about 20% decline in the value of Pound in last 12 months. Otherwise in normal course ,  it was expected that by 2020 Indian economy  would overtake UK in GDP term .Thus blessings in disgrace .


The international financial condition is fluctuating in nature .It depends upon many many factors .The economy of Greece is an example . EU is giving financial bail out package of billions of dollars to enable Greece to come out of red . The economic condition of Italy also not good . The middle class is just fighting for their bread , even selling their house hold materials to support family .Because of pounds depreciating value and BR-EXIT the GDP (Nominal) of UK to touch all time low of 1% or so .This Infact helped India to improve it's position in international ranking .


World economic conditions are regularly surveyed , monitored and forecasts are released as reflection of truth of financial health for all Governments and to international community . This not only help in future planning for growth but also create  atmospheres for  investments also. Till recently Russias and Iran's economic condition were not good but now its improving.  China's economy though has slowed down slightly but still strong. India too has very strong economy and is not affected much by international pulls because of huge and biggest middle class of the world , who are very saving friendly. Not only this in India the  average population is young i.e. maximum people are below 35 years .So India is well equipped to absorb international financial shocks .Yes of course international remittance  by NRI also play it's role.


The international economy is changing & fluctuating as is evident since last many moths and years. Sometime it goes ups  & sometimes go down .As per IMF :in 2016, Top ten countries in nominal GDP are : United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom*, France, India*, Italy, Brazil and Canada. Where as in PPP term terms top ten countries are : China, United States, India, Japan, Germany, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, United Kingdom and France. In both methods, United States and China occupied first two place. US is the largest economy of world on nominal basis where as China is largest on GDP(ppp) basis.( *The position got interchanged ) 


As per forecast , in GDP(Nominal) ranking, 3rd ranked Japan and 4th ranked Germany will remain at same position in 2020.So they are the roboust economy of theworld . Forecast of 2030  GDP (Nominal) Ranking-1.China 2.USA 3.India 4.Japan 5.Germany 6.UK 7.Korea 8.Brazil 9.France 10.Canada


Indians must be very happy with above details. Good Luck .