Wednesday, December 21, 2016

INDIAN ECONOMY'S BIG LEAP AS Vth LARGEST ECONOMY


After independence the Indian economy was growing at snail's speed without any decisive direction or target to achieve , it was routine import and export business which was totally shadowed by socialism, social cause ,protectionism , import substitution , socially  motivated policies of India after the end of British Raj . But Slowly this has become story of past. Those days economy was being  eaten away by extensive complicated bureaucratic regulations, protectionism, public ownership,  monopolies, high level of corruption , no transparency and slow growth and non international competition. 


But Since 1991 , the  economic liberalization , economic reforms , free market economy took the front seat which lead the country towards a market-based economy.Year 2001 to 2008 were crucial years of transformation .By 2008, India had established itself as one of the world's fastest growing economies.


Any Countries financial health/ economy  is judged by GDP .Gross Domestic Product is the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year. In Nominal method (GDP- nominal) no markets exchange rates are used for conversion. To make it more meaningful comparison, PPP i.e. purchasing power parity ,is used to compare economy and incomes of people by adjusting for differences in prices in different countries i.e. GDP(PPP)


After steady fast growth of 70 Years after Independence , India became a bigger Economy than  UK based on GDP , as per report published recently .


Few Details : India has became one of the fastest growing service sectors in the world with annual growth rate of above 9% since 2002, which contributed to more than 56% of GDP  in 12-13 . India became a major exporter of IT services, BPO services, and software services with $170 billion worth of service exports in 2013-14. It is also one of the fastest-growing part of the economy.


The IT industry continues to be the largest private sector employer in India. India is also the third largest start-up hub in the world with over 4,000 technology start-ups in 2014-15. The agricultural contribution is , as the largest employer in India's economy , which played major role but contributes to a declining share of its GDP as 18% in 2013-14. even though India stands second in farm output.


The Industry sector has continuously held a vital constant share of its economic contribution as 28% of GDP as in 2013-14 .The Indian auto mobile industry is also one of the largest in the world with an annual production of 21 million vehicles mostly two and three wheelers in FY 2013-14. India has $600 billion worth of retail market in 2015 and this is also one of world's fastest growing E-Commerce markets.


India's two major stock exchanges namely  Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India, had a market capitalization of US$1 + trillion and US$1.5 + trillion respectively at of end 2015, which ranks 11th & 12th largest , in the world respectively according to the World Federation of Exchanges.


Trade -Gap:  Exports$272.4 billion (2015 ) vs Imports$409.2 billion (2015) This gap is not the good   sign of economy and this gap need to be closed immediately.


The dramatic shift , which put India ahed of UK in terms of GDP  was due to India’s rapid economic growth over the last 25 years .It is matter of great pride & satisfaction that India overtook UK & becomes 5th largest GDP after USA, China, Japan & Germany. India to maintain the lead .But another reason  of India overtaking UK is due to about 20% decline in the value of Pound in last 12 months. Otherwise in normal course ,  it was expected that by 2020 Indian economy  would overtake UK in GDP term .Thus blessings in disgrace .


The international financial condition is fluctuating in nature .It depends upon many many factors .The economy of Greece is an example . EU is giving financial bail out package of billions of dollars to enable Greece to come out of red . The economic condition of Italy also not good . The middle class is just fighting for their bread , even selling their house hold materials to support family .Because of pounds depreciating value and BR-EXIT the GDP (Nominal) of UK to touch all time low of 1% or so .This Infact helped India to improve it's position in international ranking .


World economic conditions are regularly surveyed , monitored and forecasts are released as reflection of truth of financial health for all Governments and to international community . This not only help in future planning for growth but also create  atmospheres for  investments also. Till recently Russias and Iran's economic condition were not good but now its improving.  China's economy though has slowed down slightly but still strong. India too has very strong economy and is not affected much by international pulls because of huge and biggest middle class of the world , who are very saving friendly. Not only this in India the  average population is young i.e. maximum people are below 35 years .So India is well equipped to absorb international financial shocks .Yes of course international remittance  by NRI also play it's role.


The international economy is changing & fluctuating as is evident since last many moths and years. Sometime it goes ups  & sometimes go down .As per IMF :in 2016, Top ten countries in nominal GDP are : United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom*, France, India*, Italy, Brazil and Canada. Where as in PPP term terms top ten countries are : China, United States, India, Japan, Germany, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, United Kingdom and France. In both methods, United States and China occupied first two place. US is the largest economy of world on nominal basis where as China is largest on GDP(ppp) basis.( *The position got interchanged ) 


As per forecast , in GDP(Nominal) ranking, 3rd ranked Japan and 4th ranked Germany will remain at same position in 2020.So they are the roboust economy of theworld . Forecast of 2030  GDP (Nominal) Ranking-1.China 2.USA 3.India 4.Japan 5.Germany 6.UK 7.Korea 8.Brazil 9.France 10.Canada


Indians must be very happy with above details. Good Luck .

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