Thursday, July 6, 2017

BALANCE OF POWER UNDER RESET - NEW WORLD ORDER TAKING SHAPE


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To days world is increasingly marked by regionalisms , instability and Terrorists threats, pollution  , drug menaces that risk humane way of life and  values.One tries to impose their set of rules on others .Only after  the end of  WW II the concept of world order and cold war comes in to existence, created by US & then USSR to maintain their monopoly , But this has got  no relevance in to days world  , because the  situation has changed totally &  become more & more complicated and confusing .

In earlier world order or cold war situation ,  issues like nuclear security happens to be of  utmost concerns , where  a group happens to lead their satellite countries . In today's  world no country want to be a satellite country  of others  irrespective of how small & weak it is . So the earlier concept of world order / cold war has become obsolete in to days scenario  .

To days new world order is taking shape slowly and the new  type of cold war is on between US , Russia , China where all  fights are there without hot war but only cold war  . The new strategy of cold war now is  arranging coup , triggering civil war , selective  assassination and abetting terrorism , destabilization  , control over natural resources , control over trade , sea routes and natural resources .

Now terrorism and Terrorists are being used as a catalyst to create disturbances in selected areas for some narrow gains . If a group or organization is labelled as Terrorist in a country , gets freedom fighters or hero's status in another country . Example Syria , Pakistan .This is causing instability in the world which give rise to a situation like cold war / new world order . ,The world is passing through a period of great uncertainties. The world's landscape has further  changed after  new President took office in USA.

Balance Of Power- Is a balance of power between two or more groups , is practically a state of equilibrium  between two major forces. In international relations, it refers to holdings balance among countries or alliances to prevent any one group from becoming too strong enough to force , enforce it's wishes upon the other group to take undue advantages , gains ,favour  and dominate as well as impose its will . 

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World order , in fact , is dynamic in nature &  keeps  changing with time .All world orders in the past have different patterns which were suitable at that time . In today's scenario , it is all about  :


-Have more control & holds over natural resources ,  secured preferential   profitable Trade.        availability of  lower and cheaper raw materials so  to have low cost finished goods .
-Increase influence of power throughout the world.
-More military bases around the world!
-To control world's trade and navigational routes for secured of Trade .
-Shape and influence foreign policy of other Countries which suits them.
- To ensure an equilibrium of power between super powers .
-To lead the world from front.
-For better , preferential   , privileged  trade deal that improves trade between our two important countries, which ultimately bring  prosperity and growth  and ensure jobs  as well.


World order is an international system and  if it properly works it guides all power blocks to work in their area of influence and not to  influence ,encroach , pose threat , harm  other country or blocks or group of Countries of others group  I..e .w world order is a political gambit with agreed set of rules with deep understanding. Once agreed it can not be changed unilaterally . Whenever there were attempts to overshoot the defined limit, Power Balance get disturbed ,World order get shattered and destructive disorder spreads which leads to civil war and wars between Countries.

A New World Order is now visible in the horizon after new Administration took charge in US .As per indications the new US  President is going to  reset the all old policies irrespective of whether it is Health , Infrastructure , Cyber security , South China Sea , Missiles defence shields ,Naval presence , International Trade Agreements , Israel , Taiwan , Tibet . As of to day ,  US is leading the whole world ,  so any reset of their  Policy is bound to affect the whole Equilibrium of the world .

Glimpse of likely new world order & typical type of new cold war are:

1 ) Though ,  since second word war , US foreign policies were based upon to limit and control the influence and growth of Russia .But the new US  Administration indicates that a Foe can become Friend and friends have to be  friendly . The new Administration has further indicated that they could lift sanctions on Russia if Russia cooperates  and called NATO as  “obsolete.” Russia is  happy  as their  goal of their designed world order is in making as per their imagination I.e. Vladimir Putin's vision for Europe. US believes that the NATO alliance was put in place to check Russian influence in the wake of WWII, which has become“obsolete.”

2 ) Britain is not looking uncomfortable with this new US  stand and hope US will continue to lead the world  and not  abandon itsl   leadership role in the world which was in practice since last 60 years . Also suggest alliance with democratic countries like India .UK since coming out of EU  after BREXIT , wants to play a major role as a super power in world affairs  along with US  .Britain is very keen in making this new axis of US+UK a formidable front as it is in their national interest .In UK 's view countries with no tradition of democracy , liberty , human right  particularly China and Russia have become more assertive on world's affair like Syria , South China Sea, Tibet ,Taiwan which is  posing danger to democracy

3) Other likely axis could be Russia-China or  most surprising US --RUSSIA or US-UK- Japan-Korea - Australia-India  . Because of dynamism , world order  changes fast , as lot of permutations & combinations  available , which will  ultimately come to surface slowly .

The G 20 summit in Hamburg , Germany in July , 2017 may set the tune of all above new equations. Wait & Watch

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