Monday, December 12, 2016

TRUMPS LIKELY NEW CHINA POLICY ON TRADE & SCS


Peoples republic of China , seems to be in great hurry for the Super Power Status .It is well understood that , when a economical  powerful country , is in such a frame of mind, it is bound to create ripples in inter national policies by taking and making abrupt decisions , breaking international rules to their favor .China is also afraid that, what decision president elect USA shall take towards China.
There are various burning issues related to China but it's resonance is felt in whole world which affects international community , commercial activities, Trade & security policy. 

Some of them are :

1. South China Sea navigation

2. One China Policy - Taiwan

3. Dalai Lama - Tibet 

4. China's currency devaluation theory & exchange policy 

5. Indo - China Disputes. China's claim over vast Indian area

6. Disputes with Mongolia

USA is word no one economic and military power and it's any tilts & distancing towards any country affects affects international equilibrium .As such China is very susceptible towards  US about its likely policy ,. President elect Donald Trump already  started giving signals to china about this. In an recent interview , he outlined these issues very well and indicated what would be his likely policy.

In 1979 the US broke relations with Taiwan and has accepted China's stand , that , it's not an independent state but a  self-ruled island as a breakaway province. But President-elect Donald Trump has questioned the sanctity of one china policy . He asked , when US takes care of Taiwan security concerns and supplies Arms worth of millions/ Billion's of dollars i.e. when  we have already Defense relationship, why not  we can have state level relationships. Is this not heights of hypocrisy ?  

Probably Trump wants to review it. That is why he talked to Taiwanese President .No US president or president-elect had spoken directly to a Taiwanese leader for decades. Since Taiwan is main concern of China, US wants to utilize this tactical pressure  button to make the dragon discipline & run only on it own track .Yes no doubt is a big bargaining chip for U.S

As expected , china could not digest this move of Trump and reacted very sharply through its official Media threatening US .China said one China Policy can not be traded.President elect Donald Trump is a very successful Billionaire businessman who understand well, what to use where ,and how to use as well.

In today's world , bargaining from the position of strength is the best tool for taking advantage and giving concessions . What does this mean ?

This means to pressurize china & bring them to negotiation table. for meaningful dialogue for logical settlement of all outstanding international issues .China is really alarmed about likely changed US policy towards South China Sea. US wants China to obey the rulings & decisions of International Tribunal the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA)  Hague , without any deviation. 

This ruling has crashed China's massive historical claims in South China Sea and pointed out that Beijing has no right to an economic zone within 200 miles of Mischief and Thomas reefs .It is a landmark judgement that upholds a rule-based international maritime order in line with UNCLOS.

It not only rejected China's old claims, but also objected Beijing for its interference's in Philippines' sovereignty through its occupation and activities in waters within the EEZ of Philippines. Even after China rejecting  the verdict, it has undoubtedly undermined China's international standing and exposed its duplicity in its commitment to a rule-based international order. China should honor international law on sea .

China's act towards devaluation of its currency , and adjusting exchange rates frequently  is like rigging its currency to make its exports artificially cheaper in order to hurt economy of U.S.
After years of steadily strengthening its currency, China has decided that it would cleverly  use the yuan to boost its economy .

This the decision was made by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) who devalued the yuan by 1.9% against the dollar. The yuan fell  against the dollar in China, marking a three-year low for the currency, and the biggest one-day drop in 20 years.

The move was unexpected and all its trading partners too had complained about China’s artificially-weakened currency . The motives behind it  are clear now . A general slowdown in China’s economy has been compounded by a 8.3% fall in exports in July from a year earlier, with shipments to Japan and the European Union dropping by double-digit figures.

A cheaper yuan will help make Chinese exports more attractive. This type of unlawfully activities should be stopped immediately. Trump too has indicated this .
US also need to take stand on continued Beijing occupation of Tibet .Hope in US Trump era China will be forced to accept international norms and rules.

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